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Entry #764: pick published

Hash verified

FC Seoul v Gimcheon Sangmu FC: Away win 23% @ 5.46 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:15:23.514723+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 0abb088abbe7ff041bf8e90c0b10840aa98e6ee8a84b793e75382bfe81532124
Stored hash: 97dfcdb6e51a862a4262409cde405d977adca811939a2f170f44dcb4fe98b471
Recomputed: 97dfcdb6e51a862a4262409cde405d977adca811939a2f170f44dcb4fe98b471

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Gimcheon Sangmu FC",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0722,
  "explanation": "Away win: 23% against a market price of 16% (+7.2%).\nExpected goals FC Seoul 1.08 – 0.98 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 32% (uncertainty ±4.3%), so it carries 50% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nRest days (FC Seoul 4, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 8) adds 1.8 pts to away win.\nFC Seoul's attack (1.14× the league rate) takes 1.4 pts from away win.\nFC Seoul's defence (0.94× the league rate against) takes 1.0 pts from away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+7% goals at home) takes 0.7 pts from away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 7.2% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1507082,
  "home": "FC Seoul",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T07:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "K League 1",
  "league_api_id": 292,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1619,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-292-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "5.46",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.2342,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 7.2% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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