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{
  "away": "Nizhny Novgorod",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": 0.0254,
  "explanation": "Away win: 36% against a market price of 33% (+2.5%).\nExpected goals Ural 1.29 – 1.50 Nizhny Novgorod.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 42% (uncertainty ±7.6%), so it carries 32% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nNizhny Novgorod's attack (1.81× the league rate) adds 5.7 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) takes 1.8 pts from away win.\nUral's defence (0.87× the league rate against) takes 1.7 pts from away win.\nUral's attack (1.20× the league rate) takes 1.6 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+2.5%).",
  "fixture": 1577555,
  "home": "Ural",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T10:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "First League",
  "league_api_id": 236,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3344,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-236-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.83",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3598,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+2.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}