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{
  "away": "Shanghai Shenhua",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.018,
  "explanation": "Away win: 44% against a market price of 43% (+1.8%).\nExpected goals Wuhan Three Towns 1.51 – 2.07 Shanghai Shenhua.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 50% (uncertainty ±8.2%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nShanghai Shenhua's attack (1.38× the league rate) adds 3.2 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+30% goals at home) takes 1.9 pts from away win.\nWuhan Three Towns's attack (0.90× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to away win.\nWuhan Three Towns's defence (1.07× the league rate against) adds 0.8 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.8%).",
  "fixture": 1523280,
  "home": "Wuhan Three Towns",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T10:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Super League",
  "league_api_id": 169,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4269,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-169-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.21",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.445,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.8%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}