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{
  "away": "FC Volendam",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0125,
  "explanation": "Home win: 46% against a market price of 48% (-1.2%).\nExpected goals Waalwijk 1.94 – 1.75 FC Volendam.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±7.8%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 2.7 pts to home win.\nFC Volendam's attack (1.17× the league rate) takes 1.6 pts from home win.\nWaalwijk's attack (1.07× the league rate) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.2%).",
  "fixture": 1551842,
  "home": "Waalwijk",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eerste Divisie",
  "league_api_id": 89,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4764,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-89-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.98",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4639,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.2%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}