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{
  "away": "GO Ahead Eagles",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0032,
  "explanation": "Away win: 49% against a market price of 49% (-0.3%).\nExpected goals PEC Zwolle 1.33 – 1.80 GO Ahead Eagles.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 48% (uncertainty ±7.9%), so it carries 20% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nGO Ahead Eagles's attack (1.15× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to away win.\nPEC Zwolle's defence (1.14× the league rate against) adds 1.1 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+20% goals at home) takes 1.0 pts from away win.\nPEC Zwolle's attack (0.85× the league rate) adds 0.9 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.3%).",
  "fixture": 1552194,
  "home": "PEC Zwolle",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eredivisie",
  "league_api_id": 88,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4944,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-88-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.93",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4912,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}