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{
  "away": "Piast Gliwice",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0484,
  "explanation": "Home win: 55% against a market price of 60% (-4.8%).\nExpected goals Gornik Zabrze 1.49 – 0.98 Piast Gliwice.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 48% (uncertainty ±5.6%), so it carries 41% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 3.8 pts to home win.\nGornik Zabrze's defence (0.88× the league rate against) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nGornik Zabrze's attack (1.04× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nRest days (Gornik Zabrze 8, Piast Gliwice 7) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-4.8%).",
  "fixture": 1553193,
  "home": "Gornik Zabrze",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ekstraklasa",
  "league_api_id": 106,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5962,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-106-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.59",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5478,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-4.8%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}