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{
  "away": "Boluspor",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.035,
  "explanation": "Home win: 79% against a market price of 82% (-3.5%).\nExpected goals Iğdır FK 1.93 – 0.85 Boluspor.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 61% (uncertainty ±7.5%), so it carries 21% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 2.2 pts to home win.\nRest days (Iğdır FK 4, Boluspor 4) adds 1.7 pts to home win.\nBoluspor's defence (1.16× the league rate against) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nIğdır FK's defence (0.85× the league rate against) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.5%).",
  "fixture": 1585792,
  "home": "Iğdır FK",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T10:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "1. Lig",
  "league_api_id": 204,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.8248,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-204-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.15",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.7898,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}