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{
  "away": "Preston",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0194,
  "explanation": "Home win: 55% against a market price of 57% (-1.9%).\nExpected goals Wrexham 1.77 – 1.18 Preston.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 50% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+23% goals at home) adds 2.6 pts to home win.\nPreston's attack (0.88× the league rate) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nPreston's defence (1.06× the league rate against) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nWrexham's attack (1.04× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.9%).",
  "fixture": 1563214,
  "home": "Wrexham",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T14:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Championship",
  "league_api_id": 40,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5684,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-40-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.68",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.549,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.9%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}