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{
  "away": "Mallorca",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0183,
  "explanation": "Home win: 39% against a market price of 37% (+1.8%).\nExpected goals Eibar 1.23 – 0.93 Mallorca.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±7.8%), so it carries 29% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 2.3 pts to home win.\nMallorca's defence (0.90× the league rate against) takes 1.1 pts from home win.\nEibar's attack (1.07× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nEibar's defence (0.89× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.8%).",
  "fixture": 1569973,
  "home": "Eibar",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T14:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "Segunda División",
  "league_api_id": 141,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3676,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-141-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.56",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3859,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.8%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}