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{
  "away": "Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0113,
  "explanation": "Home win: 46% against a market price of 45% (+1.1%).\nExpected goals Petrolul Ploiesti 1.54 – 1.00 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 50% (uncertainty ±8.4%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+47% goals at home) adds 3.3 pts to home win.\nPetrolul Ploiesti's attack (0.88× the league rate) takes 1.1 pts from home win.\nSepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe's attack (0.88× the league rate) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nRest days (Petrolul Ploiesti 6, Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 8) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.1%).",
  "fixture": 1565275,
  "home": "Petrolul Ploiesti",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T14:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga I",
  "league_api_id": 283,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4535,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-283-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.06",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4649,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.1%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}