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{
  "away": "FC OSS",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": 0.0306,
  "explanation": "Away win: 25% against a market price of 22% (+3.1%).\nExpected goals Den Bosch 1.72 – 1.42 FC OSS.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 33% (uncertainty ±7.4%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+24% goals at home) takes 1.9 pts from away win.\nDen Bosch's defence (1.06× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to away win.\nFC OSS's attack (0.94× the league rate) takes 0.5 pts from away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.1% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1551837,
  "home": "Den Bosch",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eerste Divisie",
  "league_api_id": 89,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2218,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-89-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "4.06",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.2524,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.1% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}