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{
  "away": "Vitesse",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": 0.0362,
  "explanation": "Home win: 31% against a market price of 27% (+3.6%).\nExpected goals FC Eindhoven 1.54 – 1.53 Vitesse.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±7.3%), so it carries 32% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+24% goals at home) adds 2.3 pts to home win.\nFC Eindhoven's attack (0.92× the league rate) takes 0.9 pts from home win.\nFC Eindhoven's defence (1.09× the league rate against) takes 0.9 pts from home win.\nVitesse's defence (0.94× the league rate against) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.6% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1551838,
  "home": "FC Eindhoven",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eerste Divisie",
  "league_api_id": 89,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.273,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-89-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "3.35",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3092,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.6% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}