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Entry #76: pick published

Hash verified

Reims v Dijon: Home win 53% @ 1.71 (Avoid)

Written
2026-10-16T00:00:44.208778+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash
b8073834c45ddd837ed5f105579ee7043e6e7b7afeb533faed57ce87b4c1bacb
Stored hash
787b1a308290f743f8900574f1138c8e683c9950483a656785ea166b2acca9ab
Recomputed
787b1a308290f743f8900574f1138c8e683c9950483a656785ea166b2acca9ab
Content, exactly as hashed
{
  "away": "Dijon",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0213,
  "explanation": "Home win: 53% against a market price of 55% (-2.1%).\nExpected goals Reims 1.59 – 1.23 Dijon.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 44% (uncertainty ±8.7%), so it carries 19% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nReims's attack (1.15× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+10% goals at home) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nDijon's attack (1.09× the league rate) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nReims's defence (0.93× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.1%).",
  "fixture": 1552502,
  "home": "Reims",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ligue 2",
  "league_api_id": 62,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5539,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-62-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.71",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5326,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.1%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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