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Entry #76: pick published
Hash verifiedReims v Dijon: Home win 53% @ 1.71 (Avoid)
- Written
- 2026-10-16T00:00:44.208778+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
- Previous hash
- b8073834c45ddd837ed5f105579ee7043e6e7b7afeb533faed57ce87b4c1bacb
- Stored hash
- 787b1a308290f743f8900574f1138c8e683c9950483a656785ea166b2acca9ab
- Recomputed
- 787b1a308290f743f8900574f1138c8e683c9950483a656785ea166b2acca9ab
Content, exactly as hashed
{
"away": "Dijon",
"bookmakers": 10,
"edge": -0.0213,
"explanation": "Home win: 53% against a market price of 55% (-2.1%).\nExpected goals Reims 1.59 – 1.23 Dijon.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 44% (uncertainty ±8.7%), so it carries 19% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nReims's attack (1.15× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+10% goals at home) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nDijon's attack (1.09× the league rate) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nReims's defence (0.93× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.1%).",
"fixture": 1552502,
"home": "Reims",
"kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00",
"league": "Ligue 2",
"league_api_id": 62,
"market": "1X2",
"market_probability": 0.5539,
"model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-62-v1)",
"odds_taken": "1.71",
"prediction_version": 1,
"probability": 0.5326,
"season": 2026,
"selection": "home",
"tag": "avoid",
"tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.1%)",
"trigger": "scheduled",
"type": "pick"
}Latest entries
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#223
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Reims v Dijon: Home win 52% @ 1.77 (Avoid) 870684cf875a… #221 Pick published
Guingamp v PAU: Home win 43% @ 2.19 (Avoid) 22ca4898eb3c… #220 Pick published
Grenoble v Boulogne: Away win 35% @ 2.60 (Avoid) a6233b91a72e… #219 Pick published
Annecy v Nancy: Away win 38% @ 2.36 (Avoid) e512aa809281… #218 Pick published
Heerenveen v Excelsior: Home win 57% @ 1.57 (Avoid) de3bb5e5d4be… #217 Pick published
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Long shot slip v8: 3 legs @ 20.89, 5.95% to land 1a02e4513626… #215 Pick published
Helmond Sport v NAC Breda: Home win 22% @ 5.09 (Upset Watch) 2e18f2f85f74… #214 Pick published
FC Eindhoven v Vitesse: Home win 35% @ 3.22 (Upset Watch) fd3341243b8e… #213 Pick published
Sport Huancayo v Cusco: Home win 55% @ 1.67 (Avoid) 9e209c033231… #212 Pick published
Den Bosch v FC OSS: Away win 25% @ 4.28 (Upset Watch) 1d76d31b30d6… #211 Pick published
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Sealed until kickoff: the content is published the moment the match starts. ae39085f55aa… #209 Pick published
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Sealed until kickoff: the content is published the moment the match starts. a20d886c3418… #207 Pick published
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Sport Huancayo v Cusco: Away win 23% @ 4.50 (Upset Watch) 870053526f7a… #204 Slip published
Long shot slip v7: 3 legs @ 33.02, 4.44% to land 9ed057988c7b…